The Prosperity Couldn't Last

August 13, 2008

I'm still reading Ghost in the Little House, mainly on my lunch hour. It's rare for me to find a book that absorbs me as much as this one does.

It was 1927, and Rose was making a good living as a writer. This was after her divorce from Gillette Lane. She loved the good life: money, social visits, having servants, traveling -- she wasn't domestic at all. Despite spending years in a long-term relationship with Guy Moyston, she was not at all in favor of marriage. I'm not sure where he lived or how they met, but they would visit each other occasionally and write to each other often. Over stime she got frustrated that he seemed to never have time to see her. And that's where I get confused. He wanted her to "settle down" with him, and she appeared to deeply want him in her life. But she told him in a letter that she's "just not a wife."

In that sense, I am NOT "like Rose." I'm traditional, domestic, and very much "a wife."

Anyway, I was lunching in the breakroom with co-workers Jill and Pamela, telling them about what I'm reading. Rose was investing in the Stock Market and had thousands saved up, with plans to have a certain amount "by 1930." At that, as a finance professional, I had to chuckle to myself. I said to Jill and Pamela, "And we all know what happened in 1929!"

I'm not so sure they did. Jill seemed somewhat to understand what I was saying, but Pamela just kept a blank look on her face and made some comment about how no matter how hard one plans, sometimes it's difficult to see those plans through. She's an intelligent young college-age lady, but is a psych major and not an accounting or finance major. So I'm not sure she is aware of the significance of the year 1929.

Of course I'm talking about the Stock Market Crash and the ensuing depression this country endured. The way things are going now, in 2008, another crash could happen any time. The same symptoms are in place -- the major one being overconfidence. In the 1920s people got overconfident with the booming economy, going so far as to borrow from the banks to invest. They were that sure of a huge return, just sure that they could pay off the debt and still come out ahead.

The banks overextended; meanwhile, people thought the prosperity would never end and -- suddenly and cruelly, it did. Not so different than what has happened in the past few years. Borrowing has been too easy, people have gotten into too much debt, banks have lended to people who were not good risks -- hence the subprime mortgage crisis.

No different from the citizens fo the 1920s, we have gotten overconfident. And now look. The housing market is in the toilet and unemployment continues to rise monthly. Joe mentioned yesterday that things are getting better -- sure, the Dow has risen a few hundred points, and oil (and by association, gasoline) has gone down somewhat. But until housing and employment are on the rise, I'm not getting my hopes up.

I'm just glad I've got good credit and a good paying job.

The moral of the story is, it's not so different, the world 100 years ago. The song might be different but the dance is still the same. It really makes you think, doesn't it. Human nature has not changed. The prosperity couldn't last. The prosperity of the '20s didn't last, and the prosperity of the '80s and '90s wasn't destined to last.

The prosperity of the '80s gave way to the dot-com boom of the late '90s and early 2000s. The digital age appeared only to build upon that prosperity.

The dot-com bust gave way to the housing boom of the mid-2000s. The rising real estate market was a sure thing -- after all, real estate is a sure investment! Then somebody thought they'd try going a step further. Someone thought they could bundle mortgage obligations into debt securities. Loans were recycled as investments. The housing market was on the rise! What could go wrong? Investing in mortgages became the next sure thing!

Then KABOOM! It all blew up in our economic face. Loans were defaulted on, tossing investment values off a cliff, slinging the economy back in time.

The prosperity couldn't last. And it didn't. The cycle goes around and around. Nothing has changed, and here we are again.

How long will this recession last? Will it lead to a full-fledged depression? What will cause the next economic rise and fall? Wouldn't it be something to watch how the next 100 years pan out?